Comptroller Levine: Economic contradictions and strong but uncertain outlook
Comptroller Levine begins testimony by highlighting contradictions: a strong economy with near-record stock market and 6% tax collection growth, but also halted private sector job creation, 4.6% inflation, declining real wages for lower-paid workers, and greater economic uncertainty than any time in recent memory.
Okay.
Thank you, Chair Lee and members of the Finance Committee and City Council.
I know it's been a long day.
I've been there.
I promise I'll keep it energetic.
I'm pleased that I'm joined today by Executive Deputy Comptroller for Finance and Economics, Francesco Brindisi, and Deputy Comptroller for Budget, Krista Olson.
I really appreciate this opportunity to share my office's assessment of the fiscal year 2027 executive budget and the May financial plan for fiscal years 2026 through 2030.
This is a time of enormous contradictions in New York City's economy and budget.
On the one hand, our city's economy is strong today by most measures.
On the other hand, we are now heading into a period of greater economic uncertainty than any time in recent memory.
On the one hand, the stock market is near an all-time high.
On the other hand, private sector job creation in the city has essentially come to a halt.
On the one hand, our budget is being bolstered by a significant increase in tax revenue.
On the other hand, we face extremely large out-year deficits.
How can all those things be true at once?
I will attempt to square these contradictions in my testimony.
I'll also assess the extent to which the executive budget addresses our most pressing fiscal challenges.
And I'll suggest measures we can and should take now to prepare us for the uncertainty ahead.
First, the state of our economy.
Wall Street has just continued to show record strength.
This has helped power our tax collections, which through April are 6% over last year.
My office was thus able to revise our tax forecast upward by $927 million in fiscal year 26 and $1.1 billion in FY27 since March.
After the blowout first quarter, Wall Street's profits in calendar year 2026 are now projected at $54 billion, below last year's record $65 billion, but still quite high by historical standards.
Our jobs picture is more complicated.
We are in what some are calling a low-hire, low-fire economy.
Thanks to the relatively low pace of layoffs, the employment population ratio in New York City is actually at an all-time high.
But due to limited hiring, the private sector here, excluding educational and health services, has shed nearly 6,000 jobs so far in April.
2026.
Inflation in New York City is rising at a worrying pace, hitting 4.6% year over year in April, the steepest in three years.
Gas here was up 34%, food up 5%, electricity in the Northeast regions up 12%, all putting an even greater affordability burden on New Yorkers who are struggling.